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Just 48 hours to go.

England's opening match in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to make runs, isn't it?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent challenge of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second match, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when data indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

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